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Eli Lifland

Eli Lifland

5 posts published

https://www.elilifland.com/ https://twitter.com/eli_lifland

Matrix Moments

This article describes a "Matrix Moment" as part of the development of NBA players (see also this podcast): It’s special to watch a player when they come to the realization that they’re unstoppable. And that’s exactly what I witnessed as Barrett poured in 25 points

  • Eli Lifland
Eli Lifland Jan 30, 2022 • 3 min read

Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting

Summary I have an intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for important decisions like cause prioritization and AI strategy. I’m not aware of many example success stories of crowd forecasts impacting important decisions, so I define a simple framework for how crowd forecasts could be impactful:

  • Eli Lifland
Eli Lifland Dec 26, 2021 • 10 min read

My Hypermind Arising Intelligence Forecasts and Reflections

ContextThe Arising Intelligence tournament is being run on Hypermind, consisting of "questions about progress toward general artificial intelligence". There are versions of each question resolving in each year from 2022 to 2025. There are $30,000 worth of prizes spread across the 4 years, increasing from $3,000 to $12,

  • Eli Lifland
Eli Lifland Sep 26, 2021 • 4 min read

Draft outline: Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting

A revised writeup is now available here. I wrote a draft outline on bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting that I decided to share in its current form rather than clean up into a post. Link Summary: I have some intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for

  • Eli Lifland
Eli Lifland Sep 5, 2021 • 1 min read

Why Effective Altruism

Originally published 2019/08/03 on an old version of my blog Imagine you’re on a walk and notice a child drowning in a shallow pond. You could rush in and save the child, but it would require ruining your $3,900 suit. Most would agree it would be

  • Eli Lifland
Eli Lifland Aug 5, 2021 • 3 min read
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