Introduction Several recent popular posts (here, here, and here) have made the case that existential risks (x-risks) should be introduced without appealing to longtermism or the idea that future people have moral value. They tend to argue or imply that x-risks would still be justified as a priority without caring

I’ve been interested in AI risk for a while and my confidence in its seriousness has increased over time, but I’ve generally harbored some hesitation about believing some combination of short-ish AI timelines[1] and high risk levels[2]. In this post I’ll introspect on what comes

Overview I’ve been forecasting with some level of activity for over 2 years now, so I’m overdue for a retrospective.[1] I discuss: 1. My overall track record on each platform: My track record is generally strong, though my tails on continuous questions are systematically not fat enough.

tl;dr In the last 6 months I started a forecasting org, got fairly depressed and decided it was best to step down indefinitely, and am now figuring out what to do next. I note some lessons I’m taking away and my future plans. The High In December of

This article [https://usatodayhss.com/2018/duke-montverde-rj-barrett-living-out-matrix-moment] describes a "Matrix Moment" as part of the development of NBA players (see also this podcast [https://player.fm/series/brian-windhorst-the-hoop-collective/matrix-moments]): > It’s special to watch a player when they come to the realization that they’re unstoppable. And that’s exactly

Summary 1. I have an intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for important decisions like cause prioritization and AI strategy. 2. I’m not aware of many example success stories of crowd forecasts impacting important decisions, so I define a simple framework for how crowd forecasts could

Context The Arising Intelligence tournament is being run on Hypermind [https://prod.hypermind.com/ngdp/en/nav/navigator.html?view=challenges], consisting of "questions about progress toward general artificial intelligence". There are versions of each question resolving in each year from 2022 to 2025. There are $30,000 worth of

A revised writeup is now available here [https://www.foxy-scout.com/bottlenecks/]. I wrote a draft outline on bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting that I decided to share in its current form rather than clean up into a post. Link [https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Sp1XoGhTmsGSWvx69Bg0A3EX4KZ6vtC9IpgPiN64xr4/edit] Summary:

Originally published 2019/08/03 on an old version of my blog Imagine you’re on a walk and notice a child drowning in a shallow pond. You could rush in and save the child, but it would require ruining your $3,900 suit. Most would agree it would be