Draft outline: Bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting

A revised writeup is now available here.

I wrote a draft outline on bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting that I decided to share in its current form rather than clean up into a post.

Link

Summary:

• I have some intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for important decisions like cause prioritization but feel uncertain
• I’m not aware of many example success stories of crowd forecasts impacting important decisions, so I define a simple framework for how crowd forecasts could be impactful:
  • Organizations and individuals (stakeholders) making important decisions are willing to use crowd forecasting to help inform decision making
  • Forecasting questions are written such that their forecasts will affect the important decisions of stakeholders
  • The forecasts are good + well-reasoned enough that they are actually useful and trustworthy for stakeholders
• I discuss 3 bottlenecks to success stories and possible solutions:
  • Creating the important questions
  • Incentivizing time spent on important questions
  • Incentivizing forecasters to collaborate

Yes, my first blog post on here is one that I didn't really finish. It felt good to share but not worth the time to clean up, hopefully most future posts will not be outlines but I wouldn't rule it out. Outlines seem like fairly efficient forms of communicating.

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