Foxy Scout

Summary I have an intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for important decisions like cause prioritization and AI strategy. I’m not aware of many example success stories of crowd forecasts impacting important decisions, so I define a simple framework for how crowd forecasts could be impactful:

ContextThe Arising Intelligence tournament is being run on Hypermind, consisting of "questions about progress toward general artificial intelligence". There are versions of each question resolving in each year from 2022 to 2025. There are $30,000 worth of prizes spread across the 4 years, increasing from $3,000 to $12,

A revised writeup is now available here. I wrote a draft outline on bottlenecks to more impactful crowd forecasting that I decided to share in its current form rather than clean up into a post. Link Summary: I have some intuition that crowd forecasting could be a useful tool for

Originally published 2019/08/03 on an old version of my blog Imagine you’re on a walk and notice a child drowning in a shallow pond. You could rush in and save the child, but it would require ruining your $3,900 suit. Most would agree it would be